In this study, we conducted a structural analysis of social resilience within the framework of good urban governance, employing a futures studies approach to examine the impact of key governance components—namely participation, transparency, justice, and accountability—on the level of social resilience. The metropolis of Shiraz, Iran, was selected as a case study due to its rapid urbanization and diverse socio-economic challenges. Data were collected from a diverse sample of 500 residents and 30 urban experts and officials using standardized questionnaires and semi-structured interviews, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of both public perception and expert insight. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistical methods, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and structural equation modeling (SEM), which provided robust validation of the relationships between governance indicators and social resilience. The SEM results indicate that all good governance indicators positively and significantly affect social resilience. Specifically, the path coefficients revealed that participation had the strongest impact (0.35), followed by transparency (0.28), accountability (0.25), and justice (0.22). These findings suggest that fostering active citizen involvement is crucial for building resilient urban communities. The overall social resilience index averaged 3.82 with a standard deviation of 0.60, highlighting the substantial role of good governance in enhancing resilience levels. Qualitative findings further underscore the importance of participatory decision-making, transparent information provision, and accountability as pivotal factors in strengthening social resilience. This research integrates modern governance and foresight approaches to offer a comprehensive framework for formulating policies and strategies that bolster social resilience. Given Shiraz’s unique socio-cultural context, the study’s significance lies in its relevance to urban development challenges, though further research in diverse settings is needed to generalize the findings. The proposed framework can guide urban managers in developing targeted interventions. By prioritizing participatory decision-making, transparency, and accountability, cities can better prepare for and respond to challenges. These insights are invaluable for urban planners and managers in addressing crises, improving urban system performance, and establishing sustainable infrastructures for future development. This study contributes to the growing body of literature on urban resilience and governance, offering practical recommendations for policymakers to enhance community resilience in the face of increasing urbanization and environmental uncertainties.