Despite the expansion of urban management programs, urban fragilities in the metropolis of Shiraz, resulting from weak citizen participation, transparency, justice, and accountability, are still observed. The issue of this research is to clarify the extent to which “good governance” strengthens urban resilience, and through what pathways. The main research question is as follows: What is the effect (in terms of magnitude and significance) of the components of good urban governance, participation, transparency, justice, and accountability, on the urban resilience of Shiraz? Which component has the greatest effect? What is the current level of urban resilience? And what changes will future scenarios bring to this indicator? This research is of an applied-explanatory nature; data were collected using a standard questionnaire and semi-structured interviews, and analyzed through descriptive statistics, Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The findings show that the average urban resilience is 3.82 with a standard deviation of 0.60, and all four governance components have a positive and significant effect on resilience. The path coefficients for participation, transparency, accountability, and justice are estimated as 0.35, 0.28, 0.25, and 0.22, respectively, indicating the prominent role of participation alongside transparency and accountability. Based on future-oriented scenario writing, simultaneous improvement of governance components can elevate resilience to an optimal level, while their decline leads to a significant reduction in resilience. These results provide a practical framework for policymaking: strengthening mechanisms for meaningful citizen participation, informational transparency, and institutional accountability to enhance urban resilience in the face of urban crises.